SYDNEY, Australia - A recent Roy Morgan survey indicates that if a federal election were held today, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) would likely be re-elected with an increased majority, securing 53 percent of the vote on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a 1.5 percentage point decrease for the ALP from the previous week, while the Liberal-National Coalition (L-NP) has experienced a corresponding 1.5 percentage point increase, bringing their support to 47 percent.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has declined by 4.5 points to 80. Currently, 32.5 percent of Australians believe the country is 'heading in the right direction' (a decrease of 2.5 percentage points), whereas 52.5 percent feel it is 'on the wrong track' (an increase of 2 percentage points).
In terms of primary voting intentions, both major parties have seen gains. The Coalition's primary support has risen by 1.5 percentage points to 35.5 percent, and the ALP's support has increased by 1 percentage point to 33.5 percent, marking the highest level for the ALP since March 2024.
Support for the Greens has decreased by 1 percentage point to 12.5 percent, while One Nation has also seen a 1 percentage point decline to 4 percent. Support for other parties remains unchanged at 4.5 percent, and independents have experienced a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points, bringing their support to 10 percent.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, commented on the findings, noting that the Coalition has regained some ground with a 1.5 percentage point swing in their favor. She highlighted the upcoming Federal Budget, to be delivered by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, which is expected to feature ongoing deficits but also include significant support measures for businesses and households, such as extended energy bill rebates. Levine suggested that the government aims to use the budget as a platform for a successful re-election campaign, while the Coalition's budget response will provide voters with clearer insights into their positions on key issues like the cost of living.
The survey was conducted with a representative sample of 1,683 Australian electors between March 17 and 23, 2025. Among those surveyed, 7 percent were undecided on their voting preference, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous week.
When preferences are allocated based on voting patterns from the 2022 Federal Election, the two-party preferred results remain consistent, with the ALP at 54 percent (a decrease of 0.5 percentage points) and the Coalition at 46 percent (an increase of 0.5 percentage points).
